Interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are normally bad news for savers and good news for borrowers. But that scenario hasn't been playing out fully since the central bank began cutting rates in September.
The Fed has trimmed a total of three-quarters of a percentage point from short-term rates in recent weeks. However, rates on such popular savings products as money-market funds, savings accounts and certificates of deposit haven't fallen anywhere near that much, and some have even held steady. Meanwhile, rates on certain types of borrowings, including home-equity loans and auto loans, remain stubbornly high.
Behind the discrepancies is continuing tightness in credit markets, where many banks raise much of their capital. Instead, banks remain especially eager to attract consumers' deposits, and are willing to pay savers handsomely to keep the money coming in the door. At the same time, banks' higher cost of raising capital is keeping many of them from lowering rates on some kinds of loans
"Even though the Fed has eased three-quarters of a percentage point since September, the market has only gotten between 0.25% and 0.50% of that easing," says James Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, a market-research firm in Chicago. "If you look at it from a saver's and borrower's side, it shows you that the market is still not functioning properly."
That's fine with savers. Average yields on money-market mutual funds, for example, whose yields typically move in line with changes in the Fed funds rate, are hovering at 4.76%, compared with 5.06% in mid-September -- roughly half the amount they'd be expected to drop, says Peter Crane of Crane Data LLC.
Declines in CD rates also are relatively modest. One-year CDs currently average 3.61%, down from 3.78% in mid-July, and five-year CDs are at 3.92%, down from 4%, according to Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. By contrast, he says, comparable Treasurys have dropped a full percentage point over the same period. "Normally, CD yields would drop like a stone, and now, they've been dropping like a feather," he says.
To be sure, banks may still trim yields on deposits in the wake of this past Wednesday's Fed cut in the federal-funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks. The move, aimed at bolstering the economy amid plunging home construction and eroding real-estate values, pushed the Fed rate down a quarter point to 4.5%. However, market experts expect consumers will continue to enjoy favorable yields on many savings products in the 4% to 5% range, with the highest yields on savings products still above 5%. "Yields are going to drop a little bit, but won't drop as much as we would expect in normal circumstances," Mr. McBride says. more...