No Quick Fix for Housing Prices

The Treasury Department's rescue plan for the U.S. financial industry doesn't directly address the root cause of the crisis: falling home prices.
The government's plan, which includes taking stakes in major financial institutions and temporarily guaranteeing certain new bank debt, could cushion the economy and thus the housing market from further blows. But many economists say additional measures are needed to stimulate demand for homes and to reduce mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures.
At the heart of the rescue plan is an effort to keep the credit crunch from sending the economy into a tailspin. "If the financial system doesn't get working again, then the economic downturn is going to be much worse, and that means the housing market will be a lot worse than it otherwise would be," says Frederic Mishkin, a Columbia University economist who stepped down as a Federal Reserve Board governor in August.
But some economists say the government needs to do more to address the underlying problems that triggered the credit crisis. "It's very disappointing" that the plan doesn't do anything "to stop the spiral in home prices," which is reducing net worth and creating a falloff in consumer spending, says Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein. He proposes that the federal government offer low-interest loans to replace 20% of homeowners' mortgages.
The government's latest intervention comes as mortgage delinquencies continue to climb and home prices are plummeting in many markets. Some 5% of mortgages were at least 30 days past due at the end of the third quarter, according to Equifax and Moody's Economy.com, up from 4.6% in the second quarter and 3.5% a year earlier. In Florida and Nevada, delinquency rates now top 8%.
Nationwide, house prices have fallen 18% from their peak in the first quarter of 2006, according to Case Shiller. By another measure, from the National Association of Realtors, home prices are off 12% from their peak. They are expected to fall an additional 10% to 15% between now and mid-2009, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.
Falling prices are feeding a vicious cycle that leads to more mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. As more Americans end up "under water," or owing more on homes than they are currently worth, more people are likely to walk away from mortgages, causing foreclosures to rise further and adding to negative market psychology.
The rescue effort could buy the government some time to get other measures up and running -- and to see whether they will help stabilize home prices. Some analysts say one government initiative that appears to be bearing fruit is the increase in loan limits of mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration -- to as high as $729,000 in some cities. In September, FHA mortgages financed 28% of home purchases, up from 19% in August, according to Zelman & Associates, a housing research firm, and the number of buyers seeking government-backed mortgages more than doubled from last year, as houses have become affordable again....more